On September 12th, 2017, Lovely Warren won a commanding victory in the 2017 Rochester Mayoral Democratic Primary. With 62% the vote, Mayor Warren easily beat James Sheppard and Rachel Barnhart, who secured 22% and 16% of the vote respectively. Her victory in the Democratic primary likely ensures her re-election in November for a second 4 year term as Mayor.
The Monroe County Board of Elections was kind enough to provide the election district level voting data, which gave me the opportunity to examine her impressive victory a bit. In this analysis, I’m going to focus on geography and vote totals, not tactics, message, or coalitions.
To start, lets look at the way the county breaks down election results in Rochester. These districts are a bit different from the standard legislative district map in Rochester because (in a few cases) the County combines precincts across different legislative districts for efficiency’s sake.
What About Turnout?
According to the Monroe County Board of Elections, 20,573 Democrats voted in the 2017 Mayoral primary, up 34% from 2013’s total of 15,283. Turnout in this year’s primary was slightly lower than the figure for the Democratic Mayoral primary in 2005 (21,782), and was substantially lower than the Presidential primary turnouts in 2008 and 2016. Still, the 2017 total was quite impressive relative to the 2013 turnout figure, and clearly indicates that Democratic primary voters were engaged in the 2017 mayoral election.
So How Did the Vote Break Down?
How did Mayor Warren win an overwhelming victory on September 12th over her two challengers? How did she win more than three out of five votes in a three person race? Where did all of these new votes come from?
The table below shows that Mayor Warren won all but two legislative districts in the City, the 7th (Charlotte) and the 23rd (the Park Ave, East Ave, and Browncroft sections of the City). She also won an outright majority of the votes in 7 of 10 districts in the City.
| Leg District | Warren | Sheppard | Barnhart | Warren Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 | 44 | 90 | 47 | 24% |
| 21 | 1,755 | 755 | 580 | 56% |
| 22 | 1,541 | 233 | 126 | 80% |
| 23 | 758 | 1,170 | 636 | 29% |
| 24 | 661 | 655 | 595 | 34% |
| 25 | 2,170 | 389 | 292 | 75% |
| 26 | 769 | 425 | 346 | 50% |
| 27 | 2,710 | 325 | 211 | 83% |
| 28 | 832 | 182 | 120 | 73% |
| 29 | 1,376 | 302 | 236 | 71% |
| Total | 12,616 | 4,526 | 3,189 | 61% |
But that table may not fully demonstrate the extent of Mayor Warren’s victory. The map below shows the winner of each election district in the City.
Mayor Warren won the overwhelming majority of election districts within the City, and dominated three of the city’s four quadrants. Sheppard and Barnhart were only competitive in the southeast and Charlotte, two of the wealthier and whiter parts of the City. And as we’ll see below, Mayor Warren made substantial inroads into those parts of the City compared to 4 years ago.
Comparison to 2013
Lovely Warren surprised Rochester’s Democratic political establishment in 2013 when she defeated the incumbent mayor, Tom Richards, in a primary challenge. Her opponents in 2017 hoped that her 2013 victory was a fluke brought on by low turnout, and if they mobilized voters to polls in similar numbers to 2005, they could defeat her in 2017.
And while Barnhart and Sheppard collectively did garner 1,400 more votes than Richards in 2013, their combined total still did not surpass Warren’s 2013 vote. And, impressively, Mayor Warren increased her own total by nearly 4,000 votes, swamping her opponents combined total by securing over 12,600 votes.
(I obviously recognize that Barnhart and Sheppard ran separate campaigns, and that their votes can’t be combined electorally. Still, it does appear they appealed to the same set of voters, and from the data, split the anti-Warren vote. Therefore, for this analysis, the two have been combined into a “Not-Warren” group.)
Mayor Warren’s additional votes were found throughout the City, including neighborhoods that gave her very little support 4 years ago. As the chart below demonstrates, she received additional votes in nearly every legislative district.
While Barnhart and Sheppard increased their collective vote in Richard’s strongest districts (neighborhoods in the 21st, 23rd, and 24th districts), and added votes in the northwest 26th legislative district, they made no inroads in Warren’s 2013 strongest districts. In fact, they despite much higher turnout, they actually lost votes in the 27th legislative district, combining for only 536 votes, down from Richard’s 700 votes in 2013.
By contrast, Mayor Warren increased her totals in every legislative district in the City. She added a substantial number of votes in her 2013 strongholds (the 27th and 25th), and distanced herself from the combined votes of Barnhart and Sheppard in the most competitive 2013 district (the 21st). And while she still lost the southeast 23rd and 24th legislative districts, she significantly improved upon her vote totals in those areas, adding nearly 900 votes in those neighborhoods.
Candidate Strengths
Each of the three candidates had their own geographical strengths, although Lovely Warren’s was far broader and deeper than either of her two challengers. Mayor Warren captured an overwhelming number of votes in the areas north and southwest of downtown, securing more than 90% of votes case in a number of election districts. Her high levels of support in the mostly African-American and Hispanic neighborhoods of the City appears to have propelled her to such a commanding victory. The southeast and Charlotte contained her weakest support, although she garnered around 30% of the vote in most southeast neighborhoods.
Barnhart captured a plurality of the vote in several election districts, but did not crack 50% in a single part of the City. Relatively speaking, her strongest region were the South Wedge and Highland Park neighborhoods, although she was also competitive in the 23rd Legislative District on the east side of town. Barnhart generated very little support in the neighborhoods north and west of downtown, capturing a tiny percentage of votes in these Warren strongholds.
Sheppard won more districts than Barnhart, but only captured an outright majority of the vote in 3 precincts (out of 114). He shared Barnhart’s strength in the southeastern section of the City, and did a bit better in the Browncroft and Park Ave neighborhoods on the City’s eastern side. He was also garnered a plurality of votes in northern Charlotte neighborhood.
Conclusion
Mayor Warren won a commanding victory on September 12th because of a number of factors. Given that her opponents were strongest in the same southeastern neighborhoods that went overwhelmingly for Richards four years ago, it seems reasonable to assume that they split the anti-Warren vote. But Mayor Warren also made significant inroads into those neighborhoods, and appealed to a number of former Richards voters. Finally, she consolidated her support in her strongest neighborhoods, and turned out many voters who stayed home 4 years ago. More simply, she expanded her coalition while deepening her base.
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